WWDC 2010 predictions

Following technology is a passion of mine, and in particular, following Apple Inc.  I think I have developed a pretty good understanding of things Apple will do versus things Apple won't do.  It is amazing how difficult some people make that task out to be -- but then again, maybe they don't follow Apple near-obsessively like I do.  Anyways, I like to test my predictions versus what will actually happen, to see how well I have my fingers on the pulse.  With all that said, let's get to the meat of it!

The keynote presentation begins at 12:00 PM central time tomorrow, Monday, June 7th.

Steve Jobs will take the stage to thunderous applause right on time, like he always does wearing a black mock turtleneck, Levi's jeans, and tennis shoes.  He'll start his presentation by discussing numbers -- the latest sales numbers and marketshare for Mac OS, iPhone OS, new Apple Retail store openings, and any other interesting numbers.

After the initial numbers are out there (I'm guessing about 2.3-2.5 million iPads sold, by the way), Steve will move quickly to new hardware.  I can see Steve Jobs announcing an updated MacBook Air and Mac Pros here before he hands it off to Scott Forstall.  However, I'm not 100% convinced this is in the cards.  He may just move straight to Forstall and there won't be any new Mac hardware announced.  I tend to think we won't see new hardware, just because I think there's enough other stuff to fill the keynote.  

Scott will take the stage and quickly recap the new features of iPhone OS 4.0.  He'll invite 2-3 developers up on stage to demonstrate their latest apps that take advantage of iPhone OS 4.0 technologies.  This will drag on far too long, of course.  After the presentations, he'll announce that the Golden Master (final code) of iPhone OS 4.0 is available TODAY on the developer's website.  I imagine Jobs will also have Forstall talk about the new release of Xcode 4.0 for a bit before Scott hands things back to Jobs.  I do think we'll see Xcode 4.0 tomorrow -- and seeing how this is a DEVELOPER'S conference, this would be the perfect place to unveil it.

Steve will re-take the stage, and he'll introduce Safari 5.  Safari Reader, better performance, Bing integration, a few other new features.  Jobs then hands the microphone off to Phil Schiller, Senior Vice President of Marketing.

Phil Schiller takes the microphone and introduces a few new updates to MobileMe.  I think we may see some sort of tiered service with some free options, a cheaper option, and a premium option that all current subscribers will be moved to.  I have no idea how the new service will be partitioned, but if I had to guess -- basic syncing will be offered for free, and email / storage / web-hosting will be saved for the paid services.

After Phil, Steve will came back onstage make a wise-crack or two about the iPhone prototype being stolen / lost.  After that, it's the big reveal and iPhone HD (I don't think this will be the final name, but I will refer to it as that from here on out for clarity's sake) will be officially unveiled.

We know most of the details about the hardware already, but what we know nothing about is the software.  I think this is where Apple may have a trick or two up their collective sleeves'.  However, first, you've got to talk about the hardware.  Here's what we'll see (for those of you unfamiliar with the leaked info):

* Double resolution screen (960x640)

* Bigger battery / SIGNIFICANTLY better battery life

* 5 megapixel rear camera with LED flash, and ability to record 720p High-Def video

* Front-facing camera for some sort of video chat

* Touch sensitive rear casing (I'm not 100% convinced about this, but this may be why the back is flat again)

* Apple developed CPU (A4?  A5?)

Now, what will we see in the software beyond what has already been announced for iPhone OS 4?

* Video chat / iChat -- this one is a no-brainer.  We've seen a TON of evidence to its inclusion already, and the hardware indicates it as well.  I wonder if this iChat app will also include textual IM functionality as well, or if Apple will leave that to the established developers.  It'll be interesting.

* Wi-Fi "hotspot" tethering -- we've seen this on a few other phones, and I am convinced we'll see this on the new iPhone as well.  You'll be able to share your Internet connection from your phone with a few other Wi-Fi devices nearby.  In the past, tethering was only supported via Bluetooth or USB cable.  

* Some sort of "big deal" feature -- I really don't know what else we'll see, but I have a suspicion that Jobs & Co. have something big planned to take some of the air out of Google's latest announcements.  Remember, when the 3GS was announced, there were a few new features that weren't included in the OS 3.0 announcement a few months prior.  Maybe something clever utilizing the touch sensitive casing on the back.

* CDMA iPhone?  Everyone wants to know about the Verizon iPhone.  I have a suspicion that the Apple / AT&T relationship has just recently soured.  It seems awfully peculiar for AT&T to back out on their promise of unlimited data for the iPad just mere months after it was originally announced.  I think the deal went something like this: AT&T told Apple they would only continue offering unlimited data if Apple continued their exclusive deal with AT&T or re-signed it.  When Apple refused, AT&T changed their plan offerings instead. 

Could we see a CDMA iPhone announced?  (CDMA is the technology that Sprint and Verizon both use)  It's certainly possible, but I still think the chances of it happening tomorrow are 25% at best.  Perhaps those chances will increase as we approached Apple's usual September iPod announcement.

However, let me say this -- if Apple were to announce a CDMA iPhone, I have a suspicion that Verizon won't be the only beneficiary.  Let me explain -- the GSM iPhone is certainly not going anywhere.  That's the iPhone that Apple sells to the rest of the world.  As long as Apple makes one, they may as well sell one here under AT&T.  So, a CDMA iPhone would indicate the end of AT&T's exclusive deal in the United States.  If the exclusive is no longer in effect, Apple can be on as many providers as they want.  Verizon is the obvious name in all of this, but the fact of the matter that Apple can easily sell the EXACT SAME PHONE to Sprint as well.  If they can sell the same phone to two providers, and they aren't under any exclusive, I can think of absolutely zero reason why they wouldn't.  Therefore, I think whenever a CDMA iPhone does show up, we'll see it on Verizon *AND* Sprint.

EDIT: I am updating my predictions using the intelligence from the leaked photos of the Magic Trackpad from Engadget.  The rest of the text remains unaltered.

After that, we'll have "one more thing".  Steve will then introduce the Magic Trackpad, a Bluetooth device that connects to your Mac and lets you control the User Interface via a glass, multi-touch trackpad like you would on your laptop.

Let's recap:

Things we WILL see:

* New iPhone

* iPhone OS 4.0 goes final

* Safari 5

* Xcode 4
* Magic Trackpad

Things we LIKELY COULD see:

* New MobileMe tiered service / options

* New Mac hardware like MacBook Air updates or Mac Pro updates

Things that are possible, but I still think are unlikely:

* CDMA iPhone hardware

* iPhone OS 4.0 for iPad preview

Things we WON'T see:

* Mac OS X 10.7 "Lion" -- I think we'll see a lot of emphasis on this at WWDC 2011.  Not this year.  This is the year of iPhone OS.

* Apple TV updates

* iTunes updates (like cloud-based iTunes)

* iPod updates (these are always in September)